The Equilibrium Principle

Covid stats are through the roof. Sad, but predictable, if one understands equilibrium states. The average person, I think, isn't equipped to have a mental model of how a highly contagious disease works. The USA went into "lockdown" in March and April, just in time to prevent exponential spread from getting out of control. It worked. The curve was flattened.

Then we came out of lockdown, with mixed results. Overall though, while Covid numbers were bad enough, they remained well short of exponential. Mask usage--which has vastly out-performed expectations--very likely helped, as did good weather.

As the months wore on, a combination of complacency and fatigue set in. Complacency, that Covid, while still a problem, seemed to be bubbling along at a bad but tolerable level. Fatigue, for all forms of social isolation, including mask-wearing.

And then in the blink of an eye, the combination of change in weather, resumption of college, and the fatigue has got us in the worst state yet. 2 months ago, my pessimistic scenario was that we might be in 70% as bad a situation 2 months from now, in the depths of winter. Given that in many places we are close to maxing out ICU capacity, I can hardly bear to think of how bad it could be come January.