Friday, May 04, 2007
Windows Power Management
Power management in Windows (XP) seems so iffy and unpredictable. Often, I will find a drained battery when I power up my laptop 4 hours after shutting it down at the end of the work day. What seems to happen is that after I invoke Shut Down on my laptop--which takes a bit of time, especially if connected to the corporate network--and I flip the screen closed, that action--flipping the screen--invokes Sleep mode. Instantly, thus over-riding the shutdown in progress.
Cisco VPN Seems to Interfere with Gmail
Couldn't find anything when I did a quick search, but it definitely seems like my Cicso VPN interferes with Gmail. Curiously, the rest of the Google family (Blogger, Docs) seems okay, just Gmail is the problem.
US Primary Schedule: Everybody First, Tragedy of the Commons
First California, then Florida is moving up their primary date. The U.S. primary system used to be both "fun", for political junkies, and useful, in that a "dark-horse" candidate could emerge and build momentum. But then the states that were later, and felt like they therefore had little influence, started pushing to move their dates up. This has been progressing for the least 3 or so election cycles, but it seems that the current situations is the culmination of it all. Seems to me like a variation on the "tragedy of the commons" pattern--a system that was good for many states and good for the overall polity has now been destroyed, to the gain of almost no state, and detriment of the overall polity.
Mortimer Zuckerman has an op-ed piece on this in US News. The compromise, involving a sequence of regional primaries, taking turns in going early, seems like a hope to salvage something. Not as interesting, quirky or raw as the traditional system, but better than nothing.
Mortimer Zuckerman has an op-ed piece on this in US News. The compromise, involving a sequence of regional primaries, taking turns in going early, seems like a hope to salvage something. Not as interesting, quirky or raw as the traditional system, but better than nothing.
Feature Idea for Linked-In: Strong vs Casual Connections
LinkedIn can be potentially useful to the job-seeker when looking for an "in" or reference at a company. The problem I think is that one's network becomes bloated and diluted. In real life, leveraging a "friend of a friend" is not that easy, even if the friendships in question are significant. However, if one of those friends is really not so much a friend as an extremely casual acquaintance that you met for half an hour at a conference, getting them to do something for you is a pretty low-percentage play.
But how to keep one's network from getting diluted? It is sort of hard to turn down requests to link, that could be viewed as rather unfriendly, the last thing one wants to get from a social-networking site.
My partial solution would be for LinkedIn to provide a checkbox for you to indicate "solid contact"--close enough to ask for a favor with a reasonable expectation it would be acted on--versus "casual acquaintance". Then, when searching, you could select to search only your "solid contacts".
I say "partial" solution, because I see a couple of flaws on the downstream side of the search. One, people might not like it if others could infer, based on search results, who they do and don't consider a solid contact. And even if that weren't problematic, it would rely on other people being diligent in using the checkbox.
Still, even if the feature were implemented on the front-end only, it would be a case of "half a loaf, better than none".
The other thing that would help is if LinkedIn would make it much easier/quicker to see the path of linking.
Oh, and forget about 3rd degree contacts--those seem totally useless.
But how to keep one's network from getting diluted? It is sort of hard to turn down requests to link, that could be viewed as rather unfriendly, the last thing one wants to get from a social-networking site.
My partial solution would be for LinkedIn to provide a checkbox for you to indicate "solid contact"--close enough to ask for a favor with a reasonable expectation it would be acted on--versus "casual acquaintance". Then, when searching, you could select to search only your "solid contacts".
I say "partial" solution, because I see a couple of flaws on the downstream side of the search. One, people might not like it if others could infer, based on search results, who they do and don't consider a solid contact. And even if that weren't problematic, it would rely on other people being diligent in using the checkbox.
Still, even if the feature were implemented on the front-end only, it would be a case of "half a loaf, better than none".
The other thing that would help is if LinkedIn would make it much easier/quicker to see the path of linking.
Oh, and forget about 3rd degree contacts--those seem totally useless.
Labels:
internet culture,
Sociology,
software feature ideas
Sunday, April 29, 2007
Putting Google Calendar in Google Blogs
The Google blogging tool (Blogger, which is the platform this weblog is maintained on) has a number of nice, very easy page-element customizations. One obvious thing it lacks is a customization for Google calendars. It wasn't too hard for me to find a work-around, but given the exquisite attention to detail the Google team has shown, I was surprised they missed this one.
(The work-around is to create a custom script frame, and then embed the code snippet that Google Calendar provides for embedding.)
(The work-around is to create a custom script frame, and then embed the code snippet that Google Calendar provides for embedding.)
Thursday, April 26, 2007
Why Is A Degree So Important, If the Employer Couldn't Tell?
This NYT article tells the story of a high-profile MIT Dean of Admissions who resigned because she had claimed she had college degrees when she in fact had not even a BS degree. She had worked her way up into her present position over the course of 28 years at M.IT., and apparently was extremely well-respected and liked at M.I.T. and elsewhere (she recently published a book on admissions). While it is hard to condone her gross resume padding, lost in the discussion seems to be the fact that her employer couldn't distinguish, objectively, that she lacked a college degree. It does beg the question, just a little bit--is it dumb for employers to treat a degree as the sina qua non of generic credentialing for knowledge workers? Shouldn't a degree be a "plus", one of many things that employers weigh when deciding to hire someone? And once hired--does it matter at all?
From a strategic-HR perspective, I have thought that it would be really smart to be open to non-degreed people. You would of course have to have a good, rigorous hiring process, rather than relying on the crutch of assessing their degree and grades, but if done right, you would be able to exploit a niche and attract good people for, say, the lower half of the market rate. And they would also be much more likely to stick around, since you would be one of few employers who would give them a shot even though they lack that precious college degree.
From a strategic-HR perspective, I have thought that it would be really smart to be open to non-degreed people. You would of course have to have a good, rigorous hiring process, rather than relying on the crutch of assessing their degree and grades, but if done right, you would be able to exploit a niche and attract good people for, say, the lower half of the market rate. And they would also be much more likely to stick around, since you would be one of few employers who would give them a shot even though they lack that precious college degree.
Saturday, April 21, 2007
I Wish Wal-Mart Sold Bike Clothing
Road biking is my new hobby. I try to ride 100 miles per week. 6 weeks into this season, I am doing well hitting that target. I've even gradually lowered my temperature threshold, so that I will go ride 20-25 miles on a 35-degree day, so as long as we keep having milder winters, I've contracted the off-season to 2-3 months. Not bad for this cold climate.
What really annoys me is the price of biking clothes. A pair of padded shorts, a synthetic t-shirt with a zippered neck and pocket in the rear, those articles cost $60 each (or more)?! I could never bring myself to pay that much, I get them off-season or on-line for more like $30, but that is as cheap as it gets.
It's another example of the "if you can't buy it at Wal-Mart/Sam's, you are paying too much" syndrome. I have to think that if Wal-Mart sold them, they'd by like $19.99. Or Sam's might have a 3-pack of assorted colors for something like $41.99.
What really annoys me is the price of biking clothes. A pair of padded shorts, a synthetic t-shirt with a zippered neck and pocket in the rear, those articles cost $60 each (or more)?! I could never bring myself to pay that much, I get them off-season or on-line for more like $30, but that is as cheap as it gets.
It's another example of the "if you can't buy it at Wal-Mart/Sam's, you are paying too much" syndrome. I have to think that if Wal-Mart sold them, they'd by like $19.99. Or Sam's might have a 3-pack of assorted colors for something like $41.99.
Benefits of Subprime, ARMs for Conforming
Two more comments on mortgages...there is a good side to subprime. The mortgage market is much more flexible than it was a generation ago. This opens up the possibility for people without really good credit or a down payment to buy a home. Given that home ownership is widely considered A Good Thing*, then that is a real benefit.
The next thing I am worried about is ARM adjustments. Not just for the crazy subprime PoAs with ridiculous teaser rates, but for conforming mortgages on a 5/1 or 7/1 schedule. 2-3 years ago, those were being offered at rates of 4% or even a bit less, fixed for 5-7 years, then variable according to an index. No gimmicks there, just a reflection of the historically low rates at the time. But the fully-indexed rate on those could easily be 6.5% today, and possibly more in a couple of years (or less, we really don't know). It seems to me that there have to be more than a few A-credit homeowners who will feel the sting if their rate goes from 4% to 7+% (I know there are caps, it probably takes 2 years to get there).
The next thing I am worried about is ARM adjustments. Not just for the crazy subprime PoAs with ridiculous teaser rates, but for conforming mortgages on a 5/1 or 7/1 schedule. 2-3 years ago, those were being offered at rates of 4% or even a bit less, fixed for 5-7 years, then variable according to an index. No gimmicks there, just a reflection of the historically low rates at the time. But the fully-indexed rate on those could easily be 6.5% today, and possibly more in a couple of years (or less, we really don't know). It seems to me that there have to be more than a few A-credit homeowners who will feel the sting if their rate goes from 4% to 7+% (I know there are caps, it probably takes 2 years to get there).
Friday, April 20, 2007
Predatory Lending Distinguished from Bad Lending
There is a lot of news coverage of certain practices in the mortgage industry these days, particularly the sub-prime sector. I work in the industry, although more on the IT/Operations side, and as a relative short-timer at 5 years. But I certainly know enough to critique a lot of the news coverage.
To be clear, I take a pretty dim view of some of the practices that became popular in the last few years. Regarding the "liar loans", whereby borrowers mere state their income, without providing any proof (W-2 or Income Tax filing)--well, I have been bugging my more knowledgeable colleagues for years to provide me with a coherent and internally consistent explanation of their purpose. I never received one.
Regarding the practice of negative amortization loans (PoAs, for example) and qualifying borrowers based on the teaser rate of 1.5-2.5%, rather than the fully-indexed rate of 7% or so, well, it seems very clear to me that that is crazy stuff.
So we definitely have some bad practices that probably are never really in the consumer's interest, if we adopt a paternalistic viewpoint. However, that is not what is normally meant by predatory lending. That term refers to loans which contain excessive fees. Because mortgages are complicated, having many different factors and variants, and because they have so many related fees, it can potentially be difficult for a less incisive borrower to see that they are getting ripped off. So there are various state regulations against predatory lending.
The things we are talking about are a little bit different from classic predatory lending. The borrowers were not necessarily getting a bad deal--the fees and rates may have been in line with competitive benchmarks. What they were getting was a deal that they clearly couldn't afford. The mortgage originator wasn't necessarily receiving outrageous (aka, predatory) profits on the deal. No, the point of all the features that let the originator "bend the rules" was just to be able to make the deal happen, to qualify a borrower who would not otherwise be qualified.
Maybe this all seems like a difference without a distinction, but there is an important consideration. In the case of predatory lending, a fair and just resolution may be some kind of workout where the excessive fees are reimbursed. In such cases, it is reasonably to expect that the borrower can stay in their house. In cases where borrowers were qualified based on a very low teaser rate, or because they lied about their income (possibly with the encouragement of a mortgage broker), it is quite possibly or even probably unreasonable to think they can stay in the home. What is the workout--that they get to keep a 1.5% interest rate for 30 years?!
No, sadly, in those cases the best option is a sale. A smooth, well-planned sale that nets the best possible price, as opposed to a forced liquidation via foreclosure. They can't afford the house, they need to sell it. Unfortunately, the fly in that ointment is the fact that housing markets are softening, and the price the homeowner is likely to get may very well be less than they paid a year or two ago. Of course, many of those homeowners put very little down, so their economic downside (as opposed to the personal pain of selling and relocating and perhaps losing their dream of home ownership) is also limited.
To be clear, I take a pretty dim view of some of the practices that became popular in the last few years. Regarding the "liar loans", whereby borrowers mere state their income, without providing any proof (W-2 or Income Tax filing)--well, I have been bugging my more knowledgeable colleagues for years to provide me with a coherent and internally consistent explanation of their purpose. I never received one.
Regarding the practice of negative amortization loans (PoAs, for example) and qualifying borrowers based on the teaser rate of 1.5-2.5%, rather than the fully-indexed rate of 7% or so, well, it seems very clear to me that that is crazy stuff.
So we definitely have some bad practices that probably are never really in the consumer's interest, if we adopt a paternalistic viewpoint. However, that is not what is normally meant by predatory lending. That term refers to loans which contain excessive fees. Because mortgages are complicated, having many different factors and variants, and because they have so many related fees, it can potentially be difficult for a less incisive borrower to see that they are getting ripped off. So there are various state regulations against predatory lending.
The things we are talking about are a little bit different from classic predatory lending. The borrowers were not necessarily getting a bad deal--the fees and rates may have been in line with competitive benchmarks. What they were getting was a deal that they clearly couldn't afford. The mortgage originator wasn't necessarily receiving outrageous (aka, predatory) profits on the deal. No, the point of all the features that let the originator "bend the rules" was just to be able to make the deal happen, to qualify a borrower who would not otherwise be qualified.
Maybe this all seems like a difference without a distinction, but there is an important consideration. In the case of predatory lending, a fair and just resolution may be some kind of workout where the excessive fees are reimbursed. In such cases, it is reasonably to expect that the borrower can stay in their house. In cases where borrowers were qualified based on a very low teaser rate, or because they lied about their income (possibly with the encouragement of a mortgage broker), it is quite possibly or even probably unreasonable to think they can stay in the home. What is the workout--that they get to keep a 1.5% interest rate for 30 years?!
No, sadly, in those cases the best option is a sale. A smooth, well-planned sale that nets the best possible price, as opposed to a forced liquidation via foreclosure. They can't afford the house, they need to sell it. Unfortunately, the fly in that ointment is the fact that housing markets are softening, and the price the homeowner is likely to get may very well be less than they paid a year or two ago. Of course, many of those homeowners put very little down, so their economic downside (as opposed to the personal pain of selling and relocating and perhaps losing their dream of home ownership) is also limited.
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Tire Air Pressure
As part of my 2005 New Year's resolution, to take excellent care of my car tires, I check the air pressure regularly. I have found that every 2-3 weeks is often enough. I bought a high-quality gauge (they have 'em cheap at Wal-Mart) that is accurate to about 1/4 psi. So my goal is to keep them within 0.5-1.0 psi of spec (excluding somewhat greater variations when outdoor temps change a lot).
The key--as with so many things in life--is convenience. Getting air at the gas station is often not so convenient. First, you have to find a station with free air that is on your commute. Then when you stop, you have to hope nobody else is using it, or not using it but parked in front of it (common at convenience stores). Then, you can assume it will not have a built-in pressure gauge, so you have to have yours with you. Then it is often cold and windy (here in MN).
My solution is just to use my hand pump, the same one I use for bike tires and the kids' balls. It typically takes about 8 pumps per psi, so not an undue amount of exertion. All in all, it is quicker than stopping at the gas station.
The key--as with so many things in life--is convenience. Getting air at the gas station is often not so convenient. First, you have to find a station with free air that is on your commute. Then when you stop, you have to hope nobody else is using it, or not using it but parked in front of it (common at convenience stores). Then, you can assume it will not have a built-in pressure gauge, so you have to have yours with you. Then it is often cold and windy (here in MN).
My solution is just to use my hand pump, the same one I use for bike tires and the kids' balls. It typically takes about 8 pumps per psi, so not an undue amount of exertion. All in all, it is quicker than stopping at the gas station.
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
How Stupid Is Yahoo
I was searching for a Yahoo group, call it somegroup@yahoogroups.com. First I just went to yahoo.com and pasted in somegroup@yahoogroups.com. Nothing found. Okay, I knew that was a bit lazy, so I took the time of going to www.yahoogroups.com and tried again to find somegroup@yahoogroups.com. Nothing. So then I thought "can they really be that stupid?" and dropped the "@yahoogroups.com". Voila!
If Yahoo can't trap a simple, very predictable user "error" like that, they are simply not paying enough attention to detail.
If Yahoo can't trap a simple, very predictable user "error" like that, they are simply not paying enough attention to detail.
Sunday, April 08, 2007
Getting Users to Print More
Vyomesh I. Joshi, the senior vice president in charge of Hewlett-Packard’s printing division, wants to know how to keep people printing and how to get them printing more. I have a tip for him, but he might not like it: cut the cost per page. Substantially.
I print a lot of stuff of the web, for off-line convenience reading. Just black plain text, so any printer has more than enough quality. All I care about is cost and speed. So I buy the laser printer with the cheapest possible consumables. Usually that means generic substitute cartridges. Brother is typically the best bet here, HP the worst.
I will grant that he has one idea I like: getting web formats that don't have an "impedance mismatch" with printing. THat would be most welcome. A fair amount of the stuff I print requires me to do a Select-All, copy to clipboard, then paste into Word for readable printing.
I print a lot of stuff of the web, for off-line convenience reading. Just black plain text, so any printer has more than enough quality. All I care about is cost and speed. So I buy the laser printer with the cheapest possible consumables. Usually that means generic substitute cartridges. Brother is typically the best bet here, HP the worst.
I will grant that he has one idea I like: getting web formats that don't have an "impedance mismatch" with printing. THat would be most welcome. A fair amount of the stuff I print requires me to do a Select-All, copy to clipboard, then paste into Word for readable printing.
Labels:
Consumer Electronics,
internet culture,
IT,
Useability
Saturday, April 07, 2007
Disinhibited/Oblivious Behavior in the Rich and Powerful
Research findings cited by Conniff indicate are that rich or powerful people lose inhibitions, sometime in ways that get them in trouble. The particularly interesting aspect of this that the effect seems to be almost instantaneous--even in contrived situations, where an arbitrary person is given nominal power, the effect manifests.
The whole topic is interesting enough, and really doesn't seem so surprising when you think about it. The aspect I would like to see discussed more is the moral/ethical counter-balance that perhaps was sometimes more present pre-modernity. I am thinking of concepts such noblesse oblige, or Christian humility, which, when operative, could give rise to a strong, deeply felt internal check on such overprivileged behavior.
The whole topic is interesting enough, and really doesn't seem so surprising when you think about it. The aspect I would like to see discussed more is the moral/ethical counter-balance that perhaps was sometimes more present pre-modernity. I am thinking of concepts such noblesse oblige, or Christian humility, which, when operative, could give rise to a strong, deeply felt internal check on such overprivileged behavior.
Thursday, April 05, 2007
New PCs Filled with Crapware
Mossberg has a column today on how the new PC experience is ruined by all the crapware (trialware, etc) that they install. He goes on to contrast it to the Apple experience, which is very clean. Definitely a great opportunity for Apple to differentiate itself. Would also be a good niche for a player in the Windows-compatible market. Infuriating to pay good money to put up with this!
Wednesday, April 04, 2007
Age Discrimination in Employment?
This NYT article talks about another vanishing component of the private-sector "social safety net"--a reliable, steady procession of annual raises. It cites the recent Circuit City layoff of experienced, higher-wage workers, for the sole reason that they are higher wage workers. Not a RIF, not clearing the deadwood--they were going to be replaced, but with new hires who would start at the bottom of the pay scale.
It has always been obvious to me that there is no such thing as widespread employment age-discrimination, per se. The problem, so to speak, is the strong tendency for employees to get annual raises more or less automatically, without a clear link to their productivity. Like interest, this effect compounds quite significantly over time, to the point where a cold, analytical eye scanning a list of employees sorted by salary readily picks out some expensive outliers. They just happen to be older, because getting older is how you get more time-served (aka, experience).
None of this is to say that the pill is any less bitter for the experienced employee who gets laid off, with little prospect of being able to match their former salary. It is a painful break with expectations, with a perceived social contract. But it is not age discrimination.
It has always been obvious to me that there is no such thing as widespread employment age-discrimination, per se. The problem, so to speak, is the strong tendency for employees to get annual raises more or less automatically, without a clear link to their productivity. Like interest, this effect compounds quite significantly over time, to the point where a cold, analytical eye scanning a list of employees sorted by salary readily picks out some expensive outliers. They just happen to be older, because getting older is how you get more time-served (aka, experience).
None of this is to say that the pill is any less bitter for the experienced employee who gets laid off, with little prospect of being able to match their former salary. It is a painful break with expectations, with a perceived social contract. But it is not age discrimination.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Eating Your Own Dog Food In Other Industries
There is a notion in parts the software industry that it is a good and necessary thing to "eat your own dog food", meaning that the developers of a piece of software should be active, committed users of it. I think this ethos transfers well to other industries and environments...I thought of this when I heard a report about the filthy, dirty rooms in Walter Reed Army Hospital (not just the outpatient annex, but even in the main hospital). It seems to me that a good practice for management would be to make a point of spending a few nights in the hospital each year. I suppose arranging it and keep it secret could have complications, but the basic idea applies.
Another area I have always thought this approach would be useful is in "VIP" flagging of customer accounts. For instance, my wife worked in healthcare claims years ago, and they definitely flagged the claims of the customer's senior mangement for special-handling. If I were the customer, I would forbid this. Not so much out of egalitarian notions, but rather because if VIPs are getting special treatment, the very people who are the decision-makers regarding the insurance service provider are going to be screened from getting an accurate read on the quality of claims-payment performance.
Same thing for your local help desk--absolutely no VIP handling, until and unless a VIP demands it.
Another area I have always thought this approach would be useful is in "VIP" flagging of customer accounts. For instance, my wife worked in healthcare claims years ago, and they definitely flagged the claims of the customer's senior mangement for special-handling. If I were the customer, I would forbid this. Not so much out of egalitarian notions, but rather because if VIPs are getting special treatment, the very people who are the decision-makers regarding the insurance service provider are going to be screened from getting an accurate read on the quality of claims-payment performance.
Same thing for your local help desk--absolutely no VIP handling, until and unless a VIP demands it.
Friday, March 23, 2007
SharePoint's Members-Only Security Model a Flaw
SharePoint is a collaboration tool, but its default "private" security model really gets in the way of that. At least that's how it is set up where I work. Time and again, somebody will take time do do the right thing--post meeting notes in SharePoint, and email the link only to the meeting attendees, rather than just blasting out a quick email, for instance--only to receive a cascade of replies saying "I can't get in to the site".
I know, there is probably a setting in SharePoint administration not do that, but it's a bit like systems security—however it is set out-of-box is what matters, not how it can be set if you have the mental model and motivation to do so.
I know, there is probably a setting in SharePoint administration not do that, but it's a bit like systems security—however it is set out-of-box is what matters, not how it can be set if you have the mental model and motivation to do so.
Sunday, March 18, 2007
TrackPoint Going Extinct?
I guess I'm out of luck if/when I buy a personal laptop. For all the years I've had laptops, provided by employers, they have had a trackpoint (the little nubby thing between the G-H-B keys). I believe IBM originated them years ago. Sometimes just a trackpoint, sometimes both that and the touchpad, leaving the user to choose. But I always choose the trackpoint.
Well, I was just wandering around Office Depot, idly checking out the laptops, and out of 14, not a one had the trackpoint. Ouch!
Well, I was just wandering around Office Depot, idly checking out the laptops, and out of 14, not a one had the trackpoint. Ouch!
Thursday, March 15, 2007
Don't Overlook Wal-Mart for On-line Ordering
of books and other stuff. I just ordered a book from Wal-Mart, it was $2 cheaper than Amazon, and shipping was only $0.97, so that is another few bucks (Amazon has the advantage if over $25, of course, because slow shipping is then free).
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
How Doctors Think
I heard about 15 minutes of interview with the book's author (an eminiment doctor) on Fresh Aire. Very interesting stuff. Lessons:
- Don't assume the doctor is infallible.
- Definitely don't assume tests are infallible (he quotes an error rate of 30% on radiology!). Even if the test is theoretically perfect, there is always the possibility of human error resulting in you being given another person's results.
- The simple practice of asking "what else could it be?" is cited as a way to move pysicians off their bias (common to humans in general) for latching onto the idea introduced initially.
Monday, March 12, 2007
Run Capital Intensive Industries Round the Clock
The WSJ had a good article, written by a report hospitalized for a week with pneumonia, for a cost of $100,000+, on effective but expensive hosptial medical equipment. One observation was that, unlike other industries, new medical equipment seems to augment, rather than obsolete, old equipment, so the capital bill just rises and rises. It seems to me that this expensive equipment absolutely should be run around the clock. Shift-based discounts could be given if you were willing to come in for a CT scan at, say, 3 AM.
Likewise for airplanes and airports. Given all the problems with airport congestion, why are there no flights between 10 PM and 6 AM??
Likewise for airplanes and airports. Given all the problems with airport congestion, why are there no flights between 10 PM and 6 AM??
Mortgages: Liar Loans
You can't open the Business section of a newspaper these days and not read an article about the woeful state of the mortgage industry, notably the subprime sector. A lot of the misery in that sector is tied to "liar's loans": "No Documentation" and "Stated Income" loans that don't require a W-2 or tax return.
Despite having worked in the industry (more accurately, on the IT periphery) for the past 5 years, and having inquired of several people what the logic for those loans is, I have never received a really satisfactory answer. Supposedly it started as something for self-employed. Okay, I understand, if you are self-employed, you haven't got a W2; but you certainly should be able to produce a tax return.
Anyway, from that original purpose, the loans migrated to wage earners (i.e., non-self-employed) and worse, subprime. So any shred of rationale for the program was lost. Oh, I would hear justifications like "it's for people who are willing to pay a premium for the convenience of not having to go through the paperwork". Gimme a break! How much work is it to produce a pay stub and copy of your tax return? If someone is lazy enough to pay 0.25% more on their mortgage to skip that step, they are too lazy to pay their loan!
No, given the classic information asymmetry involved, the vast majority of people taking these loans must be lying. And in fact, the most recent article I read said that, in an audit-style study, 90% of people did exaggerate their income, and 60% of them by more than half!
Despite having worked in the industry (more accurately, on the IT periphery) for the past 5 years, and having inquired of several people what the logic for those loans is, I have never received a really satisfactory answer. Supposedly it started as something for self-employed. Okay, I understand, if you are self-employed, you haven't got a W2; but you certainly should be able to produce a tax return.
Anyway, from that original purpose, the loans migrated to wage earners (i.e., non-self-employed) and worse, subprime. So any shred of rationale for the program was lost. Oh, I would hear justifications like "it's for people who are willing to pay a premium for the convenience of not having to go through the paperwork". Gimme a break! How much work is it to produce a pay stub and copy of your tax return? If someone is lazy enough to pay 0.25% more on their mortgage to skip that step, they are too lazy to pay their loan!
No, given the classic information asymmetry involved, the vast majority of people taking these loans must be lying. And in fact, the most recent article I read said that, in an audit-style study, 90% of people did exaggerate their income, and 60% of them by more than half!
Salespeople Flogging Mortgages
A key difference in the world of retail mortage over the last 15 or so years, I think, is the emergence of an "active sales" model. 18 years ago, when we got our first mortgage, two things were different. One was what it took to qualify--I remember being right on the edge of qualifying to be able to borrow what we thought we reasonably comfortably could afford, to buy the condo we wanted. Now, what the originator would be willing to lend me, as a percentage of income, is downright scary--they do not care if I eat, as long as I can make the payment!
The other thing that is SOOO different is the role of the mortgage broker. When I needed a mortgage, I checked a few newspapers ads, called a couple of banks, picked the one that seemed to have the best rate, and made an appoinment with a loan officer. They asked some questions, and then told me how big a 30-year fixed loan I qualified for.
Nowadays, many people have "their" mortgage broker like they "their" insurance agent. The industry has gone this way for various reasons, but the relationship with the broker had been heightened by the prolonged period of declining interest rates, during which many, many people (wisely) re-financed 2 and even 3 times over the course of a half-decade or less.
Nothing against mortgage brokers, there are plenty of good and ethcial ones. But--there are some who aren't. And they are pushing mortgages at people. They even adopt the lingo of a used car sales salesperson: "I can put you into X house for X payment".
I know, I know, nobody held a gun to the homebuyer's head. But I do believe that some substantial number of people were, to some extent, enticed into mortgages--albeit of their own freewill--that they would not have walked into in the old model. I'm not saying "there oughta be a law"; it is just an observation on the state of affairs.
The other thing that is SOOO different is the role of the mortgage broker. When I needed a mortgage, I checked a few newspapers ads, called a couple of banks, picked the one that seemed to have the best rate, and made an appoinment with a loan officer. They asked some questions, and then told me how big a 30-year fixed loan I qualified for.
Nowadays, many people have "their" mortgage broker like they "their" insurance agent. The industry has gone this way for various reasons, but the relationship with the broker had been heightened by the prolonged period of declining interest rates, during which many, many people (wisely) re-financed 2 and even 3 times over the course of a half-decade or less.
Nothing against mortgage brokers, there are plenty of good and ethcial ones. But--there are some who aren't. And they are pushing mortgages at people. They even adopt the lingo of a used car sales salesperson: "I can put you into X house for X payment".
I know, I know, nobody held a gun to the homebuyer's head. But I do believe that some substantial number of people were, to some extent, enticed into mortgages--albeit of their own freewill--that they would not have walked into in the old model. I'm not saying "there oughta be a law"; it is just an observation on the state of affairs.
Labels:
business commentary,
politics,
Resume,
Sociology
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Streets & Trips Feature Idea: One-click Directions + Map
I've been a fan of MS Streets & Trips for a few years now. As nice as, say, Google maps is, the thick-client advantage for mapping applications is huge. I tend to like maps, Beth tends to like printed directions. So I often wind up printing both, but that uses two pages. A nice technique I only discovered in the past year is to copy the directions to the clipboard , and then paste them into a textbox overlayed on (an unimportant section of) the map view.MS has included very nice, intelligent copy commands, so it isn't too much trouble to do this. But a 1-click command, PlaceDirectionsIntoTextboxOnMap, would be--as my kids say--sweeeet. Odds are that it would have to be hand-tweaked after placement, but automating the copy-insert textbox-paste would provide very nice start. And it would lead less sophisticated users to the technique, which they might otherwise never discover.
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Strategy: iTunes Influence in Music Industry
The WSJ has an aritcle discussing the influence of iTunes in the music industry. The part that sticks out for me is how they don't follow the simple, obvious, somewhat crass business model of promoting whoever pays the most. While they are hardly "pure"--they definitely want something in exchange for front-page promotion--it is much more subtle and thoughtful than "payola". They look for exclusive material instead of cash.
So they are much closer to pure in terms of being a reliable taste-maker, instead of just another purveyor of unwanted commercial messages. Very effective strategy.
So they are much closer to pure in terms of being a reliable taste-maker, instead of just another purveyor of unwanted commercial messages. Very effective strategy.
Twin Cities Biking Season IS ON
Okay, 5 straight days of good biking weather, sunny and mid-40s into the 50s. So I am declaring my personal spring biking season OPEN. I had 2 pre-season rides 2.5 weeks ago. Before that, the last riding for me (I'm good above 40, might venture 35 and sunny for 10 miles) was New Year's Weekend. So that makes for a 10 week off-season. Not bad for this cold clime. Although the last month of fall/winter was marginal, limited good days, and probably the same will hold for the spring.
Google Bus System
Google is running its own bus system. Very interesting stuff. Of course most companies would never even think of doing this, but if they did, fleetingly, entertain the suggestion, they would instantly dismiss it as having nothing to do with their core competency. Google's ceaseless innovation mindset, not confined to products, but extending to process and culture, reminds me of Wal-Mart and Toyota.
As much as it is a generous fringe benefit or an environmental gesture, the shuttle program is a competitive weapon in Silicon Valley’s recruiting wars.
A secondary advantage a Google has is the "Disney effect" of providing a pleasant, upscale, "people like us" ridership, thereby mitigating one hidden objection to mass transit. No risk of having gun-toting, anti-social co-riders.
When I was at Otis Elevator 20 years ago (1988), it hadn't been so long since full-time working mothers had become a totally mainstream phenomenon. Child-care was a big issue. I remember at some kind of employee HR meeting, someone noted that it would be really convenient to have on-site child care. HR, in a somewhat typically condescending way, responded by first agreeing, in a pseudo-empathetic way, that yes, that would be nice; but, "you know, we're just not in the child-care business", so it can't be done. Within 5 years, on-site day-care started to become somewhat common. Not run by the employers, but by co-located out-sourcers.
EXCERPT:
In Silicon Valley, a region known for some of the worst traffic in the nation, Google, the Internet search engine giant and online advertising behemoth, has turned itself into Google, the mass transit operator. Its aim is to make commuting painless for its pampered workers — and keep attracting new recruits in a notoriously competitive market for top engineering talent.And Google can get a couple of extra hours of work out of employees who would otherwise be behind the wheel of a car.The company now ferries about 1,200 employees to and from Google daily — nearly one-fourth of its local work force — aboard 32 shuttle buses equipped with comfortable leather seats and wireless Internet access.
...
As much as it is a generous fringe benefit or an environmental gesture, the shuttle program is a competitive weapon in Silicon Valley’s recruiting wars.
Labels:
business commentary,
business strategy,
Sociology,
temp1
Tuesday, March 06, 2007
Style Over Substance
Paul Graham: "A few years ago I read an article in which a car magazine modified the "sports" model of some production car to get the fastest possible standing quarter mile. You know how they did it? They cut off all the crap the manufacturer had bolted onto the car to make it look fast."
Monday, March 05, 2007
Arab Democracy
Azure.org:
the West performed a dual function in the inculcation of liberal democracy in the Middle East. On the one hand, Britain and France acted as political mentors, helping to move Arab societies towards full independence; they aided in the establishment of a political system that would guarantee fair competition between parties, freedom of speech and inquiry, freedom of assembly, and equal rights for women and minorities. On the other hand, the Powers also sought to promote their own strategic interests and bolstered the status of political forces loyal to the West. This duality inevitably resulted in a deep mistrust of Western forms of government in the Arab world: Arabs largely perceived it as a fraud, an illusion intended to distract them while the West perpetuated its domination of the Middle East. They came to regard democracy as a synonym for the underhanded promotion of foreign interests. This is where the Gordian knot of the Arab democratic question emerged: The West was seared into Arab consciousness as a liberator that is also a conqueror, and liberal democracy as a solution that is also a problem.
British Spelling of "Canceled" Mysteriously Taking Hold
For some strange reason, it seems like the British spelling of canceled (cancelled) is becoming increasingly common in the United States. In a meeting today, someone was writing on the whiteboard, and paused after the first "l" to ask "how do you spell canceled?" Right away, someone piped up "l-l-e-d".
I did manage to stifle my internal pedagogue.
I did manage to stifle my internal pedagogue.
Sunday, March 04, 2007
Automatic Backup-to-Net
Here's a business-technology idea...a background feature that automatically backs documents up via the internet, as you work on them. Just as MW-Word, Excel, etc can auto-save in the background, this would auto-save to your personal backup repository in the "internet cloud". A key feature would be that no configuration or filing would be necessary--it just happens automagically.
Another important design consideration is the "find, don't file" metaphor Gmail uses. So no need to specify where to file.
Of course, this feature would be a slam-dunk for Google...
Postscript--just tried Google Docs and it essentally has the feature, of course--including the no-file-folder option.
Another important design consideration is the "find, don't file" metaphor Gmail uses. So no need to specify where to file.
Of course, this feature would be a slam-dunk for Google...
Postscript--just tried Google Docs and it essentally has the feature, of course--including the no-file-folder option.
Saturday, March 03, 2007
Real Winter in Minnesota
This is as much snow as we had in our 5 winters here. Back-to-back 1-foot-plus snowfalls. Kids are enjoying it. Too bad it didn't come early in the season; though they say March is the snowiest month. A couple more and we might be up to an average snowfall.
The snow, along with the 2+ weeks of frigid temps, almost makes it like one of the winters of yore.
The snow, along with the 2+ weeks of frigid temps, almost makes it like one of the winters of yore.
Getting Widescreen TVs on the Right Aspect Ratio
It always bugs me when I am in a restaurant/pub that has TVs showing standard 4:3 broadcasts, and they have the TVs set to "wide" mode. It also surprises me that other people either don't notice or don't care. (This would include the rest of my family, as it happens; I'm the only one who ever switches the aspect ratio on the TV.)
"Think Small" Article on Housing
A good NYT article on ultra-small stand-alone housing options. Interesting stuff. Not exactly what I have been thinking about (Good Design Reduces Need for Raw Space), but definitely in the same spirit.
Friday, March 02, 2007
Google Apps--You Read It from Me First
Google Apps for small business seems very much along the lines of my suggestion of almost 2 years ago.
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