Will Vaccine Status Become a Requirement

I am curious to see if vaccine status requirements (e.g., vaccine passports), becomes a major thing in the US. For employment, for travel, for entry into events, etc. So far I haven't personally heard of companies that plan to require it. I suspect it will eventually become an issue, unless we get supremely lucky and the current level of vaccination really does brings the virus fully to heel. 

I suspect employers are temporizing. Waiting for others to go first, and waiting for justification--e.g., a company experiences a widely-reported outbreak amongst unvaccinated employees. When/if that happens, I predict a bandwagon effect of employers making it a requirement.

I would like to think the example of other countries, less infected by vaccine conspiracy theories and (mostly) right-wing anti-scientism, could help steer the US in the right direction. But given the many other issues where that hasn't happened, that may be wishful thinking.

Some parents are demanding their pediatrician's offices certify they do not accept non-vaccine-compliant families. Ideally that would be another lever to push for full vaccination, though it requires collective action on the part of the less-motivated majority, so I won't hold my breath.

Buses Are Under-Appreciated Mass Transit

I could have written this article! Including this:

Buses often fall down on the job—not because they’re buses, but because they’re slow. Buses are slow in part because city leaders don’t want to slight anyone and thus end up having them stop far too frequently, leaving almost everyone worse off. 

I remember riding the bus in college and being dumbfounded at how often riders pulled the stop chain. Quite frequently, they would have been much better off had they gotten off at the previous stop and walked.

The points I would add:

Historically, one problem with buses for the tourist or occasional rider, or even being in a different part of town, is knowing the schedule and stops. Happily, technology has obliterated that concern. Google Maps is shockingly good at mass transit.

Also with modern tech, we can also think beyond the big bus. I believe there is great potential in vans and minibuses to displace much of what Uber and Lyft do today. Especially if self-driving becomes reality.

Weird Driving Assist Incident

Our 2016 Subaru Forester has some driving assist features, including collision avoidance. If it senses that you are in danger of colliding with something in front of you, depending how dire the situation, it will warn you or even automagically apply the brakes.

The Forester is Beth's car, so I don't get much time behind the wheel, but there have been a couple of occasions where I was in the car and it kicked in, just slightly. In those cases, no actual collision was imminent, it was merely a case of a car pulling into our lane a bit aggressively. Still, it was impressive to see the feature in action.

Last summer we were staying at a cabin in northern Minnesota. It was part of a small "resort", accessed by a very long, winding drive. One fine, very sunny July late morning, I was piloting the entire family out for the day's excursion. Gorgeous, clear weather. Imagine my surprise, as we rounded the final bend in the aforementioned long driveway, when the trusty Forester ground to an abrupt halt!

It wasn't quite as sudden as a collision, nor was there any tell-tale sound of metal crunching. More like hitting a really big pile of sand, in the middle of the road, at 20 mph. Still, I was more than unnerved. I jumped out of the car, and looked in front--no pile of sand. I looked underneath--nothing hanging from the chassis.

As I raised my head in perplexity, it dawned on me...in front of the vehicle was a sharp, heavily shaded  turn. The woods in front of the car, combined with the brightness and angle of the sun, had fooled the driving assist cameras into thinking we were about to run into a proverbial brick wall!

Sleep-Deprivation is no way to run medical residency

Came across this in my tweetstream the other day. 

Father of modern surgery, William Halstead, invented the overnight call system. He thought it toughened the character. What we learned later was that his method for staying awake was cocaine. The entire on-call system for medical trainees is premised on cocaine dependence.

I have always thought the inhuman work hours expected of medical residents is mad folly. It is well-known that sleep deprivation drastically reduces performance. To the point where for some tasks even moderate sleep deprivation is equivalent to being over the (U.S.) limit for drunk driving. Why on earth would you want someone in that condition making medical decisions?

Oh, I know there are elaborate justifications. But the whole system reeks of a combination of self-interest (addicted to cheap labor), plus its-always-been-this-way-ism (accepting the clinical justifications as self-evident, my generation went through it, so why shouldn't yours). As in many questions of policy, it is useful to turn to empiricism. What do other places do? Studies suggest there are good alternatives.

For inspiration, consider working remotely. Many organizations and managers were against it, until they were forced, at the figurative point of a gun, to rely on it. Now, I think the large majority thinks it is viable, and many think remote work can be even more productive. Of course I'm not claiming that automatically proves a change of comparable magnitude would work for medical residency, but it is one more good argument for considering and experimenting with improvements.

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Postscript: I have my doubts whether the tweet is entirely accurate. The part about inventing the system is true, and so is the cocaine addiction. But it isn't clear that they go together. This Quora post claims they were not related. I generally would not like to rely on a Quora post for the final word in anything. But the original tweet contained no link, and in 10 minutes of searching, I found very little that make the cocaine-sleep deprivation-enabling connection. The one thing I found looked the likely source of the tweet. Nothing else made the link. Including this very detailed article of apparent first-rate provenance. None of which changes the fact that the US Medical Residency system is surely due for an overhaul.

Excellent Retirement Drawdown Calculator, Factors in Social Security and Pension

This calculator is fantastic. It takes care of a really hard part, which is factoring in years between "early" retirement, and time you start receiving Social Security and/or a pension. Also factors in inflation. For what it's worth, my investment rate of return assumptions are:

• Middle/Mildly Optimistic: 7% return, 2% inflation
• Moderately Conservative: 6% return, 2% inflation

Very important note--this assumes 100% equities. If you take a route that involves less market risk and lower volatility, you will likely have substantially lower inflation-adjusted returns. It also assumes that your savings are tax-sheltered; either retirement accounts (fully tax sheltered) or long-term investments (mostly tax-sheltered).

Assumed returns are over the very long term, mind you. Any time horizon under 10 years may well be less predictable (not that there are any guarantees of predictability--this is a build-your-own annuity). Also, as I write this (Feb 2021) the market has been so strong for so long, that I make a near-term adjustment. I assume zero market returns for the next 4 years. That could come either as a near-term correction, and then a return to more normal returns; or it could come as 4 years of stagnation. (DISCLAIMERS: these are just my own uninformed guesses that I bake into my model. Nothing magic about 4 years, either, just my guess/model.)

So to use the calculator, you need to have an idea of how much income you need/want in retirement, and also how much pension and Social Security income you will have (the latter can be looked up online). For instance, here is a model run using some nice round numbers:

This model is for someone who retires today at age 60, and waits until they are 67 to begin drawing Social Security. Here are the results (some intervening years omitted for brevity):

They will run out of money in 20 years, at age 80. 

A crucial aspect of the model is that it factors in inflation. This is absolutely essential. Even with the very low inflation we have been experiencing for many years now, over a decadal timescale inflation  has a huge impact. (Again, the model is only going to be good as your wild guess on inflation, but that is much, much better than ignoring inflation.)

Also crucial to remember: the calculator does not factor in income tax. So that $7000 monthly income could translate to more like $5400 post-federal and state income taxes.

For modeling how much savings you will have at point of retirement, there is another calculator in the family. As for determining your budget, that's an exercise for the reader, but I will offer a few things to consider:

• Don't forget, since you don't pay Social Security taxes from retirement income, your monthly income need is effectively ~7.5% smaller.
• Likewise, in retirement you obviously no longer need to save for retirement, so that is another chunk of your monthly budget to the good.
• If you have significant after-tax savings, the tax rate will be lower. In the case of Roth, tax rate is zero. In the case of regular, non-retirement-account savings, the LTCG is 15%, instead of your 22-24% federal income tax bracket (though I wouldn't be shocked to see that differential eliminated in the future).

Finally, a limitation of the model is that it doesn't factor in cost of health insurance, prior to being Medicare-eligible. And we all know that can be well into double-digits. It also doesn't factor in when you are done paying off a mortgage, which would also be very helpful.

PSA: Upgrade Your Under-Microwave Bulb

I recall a Blondie comic strip decades ago, where the punchline revolved around Dagwood falling prey to a door-to-door salesman, who convinced him to "stock up" on refrigerator lightbulbs, in order to get a big volume discount on a pack of a dozen. Being a youngster of perhaps 8 years, and having recently absorbed the concept of "volume discount" when shopping, I asked my Dad why that was, apparently, an idiot move on Dagwood's part. My father of course explained that refrigerator lightbulbs, only being in use for minutes per day, tend to last for years*. So Dagwood had just purchased a lifetime supply, and then some.

I myself have replaced a few refrigerator bulbs over the years, though I expect never to do it again, now that they have converted to LEDs. And on that note, microwaves. The typical suburban over-the-stove microwave includes a little 40W bulb, to shed light on the stovetop. Setting aside the silliness of measuring light in watts, 40W is really quite dim.

Until a week ago, I had never given the bulb or its replacement much thought, beyond mentally deploring its dimness. I can't recall ever having needed to replace one (just lucky timing, with moves and microwave replacements, I don't think we have ever had a microwave longer than 8 years). Until last week, when I finally experienced a burned-out microwave bulb.

I automatically went down the path of looking for a compatible LED. That wasn't hard, search yielded many 4W LEDs advertised as equivalent to a 40W incandescent. BUT--why settle for equally dim? Why not find a compatible form factor with higher lumens (brightness)? A little more searching turned up 7W equivalent replacement bulbs--so more like 70W. Still far from really good lighting, but a big step up from 40W dimness.

When they arrived, though, I immediately spotted accursed Murphy hovering in the vicinity: the new bulbs had the same base size, but they were about 1cm longer. Uh-oh. My initial attempt to fit it in was like a square peg in a round hole. While there would be (barely) enough clearance for the fully-screwed-in bulb, there was no room to maneuver to get it to the screwed-in state.

I really thought I was done for, but I persisted. And eventually managed a rare and surprising triumph over Murphy. What I discovered is that, like a semi backing into a seemingly impossible space, if I made just the right combination of moves, I could get it to fit. Those moves were:

• Turn the bulb sideways (perpendicular to the receptacle).
• Raise it all the way to the top of the enclosure--higher than the receptacle.
• Then rotate it 90 degrees, so base is lined up with receptacle.
• Finally, ease it into the receptacle, using every micron of space to get the first thread to take.

I have no idea if other microwaves will have this problem, nor if the solution will work with other microwaves. Just sharing in case it helps. The replacement bulbs are so cheap, it is worth trying just for the 75% increase in lumens.

Here is what I bought, for $13. Slight ironic coda: it's a two-pack.

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*We are talking the old, pre-LED, pre-CFL incandescent bulbs that generate lots of heat, and fail regularly, with typical usage lives of about 1000 hours. I suspect the cold operating temperature may have contributed to perception of long bulb life, in equal part as infrequent use.

Can't Believe Day Trading Is Back

I observed the foolishness 20 years ago, in the original 90s dot-com bubble. If you don't know better, and want to believe, I suppose it is easy enough to confuse a broadly rising market with being a skilled stock picker. Compounded by the ever-greater convenience, pandemic-driven doldrums, and gambling-like-thrill.

After 11 years of using Android phones, I decided to try iOS. The hardware is very good, if pricey, but still questioning that decision from a software standpoint. My favorite bridge and crossword apps are unavailable. My favorite keyboard, Swiftkey, is available, but works differently in ways I hate (mainly no symbols available via long-press). Many other things.

But the gap that is driving me nuts at the moment is an Alarm Clock app. I have gone though a few on Android, but have always been able to find one that is 90% of what I want. Key features are:

• Gentle alarm (this should be table stakes, but many lack it)
• for extra credit, ability to tune the gentleness of the gentle alarm
• Ability to set an alarm for a specific date, in advance
• Skip Next shortcut option. Very convenient in 2 common use cases, related to recurring alarms:
• Holiday or PTO tomorrow, want to do a one-time skip of recurring alarm (an even better implementation is "Skip Until __").
• Wake up before alarm, want to silence it proactively.

Part 1: Smart Trainers Turn Your Road Bike into a Versatile Home Exercise Bike

Cycling has been my primary form of cardio for 30 years. I started riding the exercise bike in a health club in my early 20s, and continued through many moves and many different clubs. About 15 years ago, I became a committed road cyclist, but in the 4-5 cold months, I continued with the ex bike at the gym. Fellow cyclists would sometimes ask me if I used a trainer indoors, but I wasn't interested, I liked the electronic exercise bikes.

Although a dedicated ex bike user, I was never fully satisfied. I liked variation, and the offerings were not great. The original Lifecycle had a "random" mode, which I don't think wasn't really random, but offered more variety than almost anything else I have encountered since.

Well, fast-forward to Covid times, and I have become a trainer convert! Some weeks ago, I ordered a Saris M2 smart trainer. A smart trainer is controlled by a device (app on your phone). When riding in ERG mode, it makes you ride at the effort you signed up for. Start pedaling slower, and it increases the resistance. And you can create any profile you want.

There are three somewhat distinct types of app-driven stationary cycling. One is the augmented reality approach, where you cycle through an imaginary route, and the resistance matches the topography. Another is competition, where you ride a virtual road race. The third, the one I personally use, is more mundane; you simply pick a program, and the resistance shifts accordingly over the course of the ride. Just like my Lifecycle from 30 years ago--except I get to create the program.

Like so many things cycling, the apps are pitched toward the super-serious cyclist. The claim to analyze your performance and present optimized training plans. I suspect there is a lot of hype in there, but it is easy to ignore. I just created a bunch of different programs I like, and I have plenty of variety.

(see Part 2 for my tips on getting started, including some important accessories.)

Building distributed tech hubs to drive economic prosperity

Devolution of infotech in the US away from Silicon Valley/San Francisco is a topic I've been sporadically obsessed with for a while. So absurdly ironic that the industry which makes things virtual has such a strong value on physical centralization. This article covers the issue, hoping that Covid-driven remote work arrangements break the cycle. I sure hope so...though I do remember a similar sentiment at the dawn of the internet, but perhaps we weren't ready then. 

So many benefits to geographical diversification:

• Ability of employees to live where they want--both in a different part of the metro from the office, and different metro entirely (or not in a metro per se).
• Diffusion of entrepreneurship, wealth and concommitant benefits to other parts of the country--some of which really could use it.
• Optimization of the labor market, both for employees and employers
• Savings to employers on the high cost of office space. Savings to employees on 
• Savings of time can benefit employees and employers. As a 10+ year full-time-telecommuter, that was my rough philosophy--I get half the time saved, employer gets half the time saved. 
• Nuances, such as the fact that (salaried, mostly) employees can adjust working hours to match their personal productiivty. Even for jobs that have core hours, you can decide whether to "stay late" to finish a backlog, or come back to it when you get a second wind at 10:00pm.

Before It Became a Hell-Hole, Bosnia Was a Peacful, Multi-Ethnic Place

The Equilibrium Principle

Covid stats are through the roof. Sad, but predictable, if one understands equilibrium states. The average person, I think, isn't equipped to have a mental model of how a highly contagious disease works. The USA went into "lockdown" in March and April, just in time to prevent exponential spread from getting out of control. It worked. The curve was flattened.

Then we came out of lockdown, with mixed results. Overall though, while Covid numbers were bad enough, they remained well short of exponential. Mask usage--which has vastly out-performed expectations--very likely helped, as did good weather.

As the months wore on, a combination of complacency and fatigue set in. Complacency, that Covid, while still a problem, seemed to be bubbling along at a bad but tolerable level. Fatigue, for all forms of social isolation, including mask-wearing.

And then in the blink of an eye, the combination of change in weather, resumption of college, and the fatigue has got us in the worst state yet. 2 months ago, my pessimistic scenario was that we might be in 70% as bad a situation 2 months from now, in the depths of winter. Given that in many places we are close to maxing out ICU capacity, I can hardly bear to think of how bad it could be come January.

Covid Questions I Would Like to See Answered

Why Haven't There Been More Outbreaks at Health Clubs?

How Likely Is It That a Sleeping Partner Will Catch Covid?

Does CPAP Help Prevent Getting Covid?

What Is the Equation for Viral Load Over Time?

Charisma: More of a Negative

Given the incidence of narcissism in very important leadership roles in the US and around the globe, I believe organizations should get more deliberate about screening for narcissism,” she tells Quartz. One way to do that: Contact several people who have worked with the candidate in the past, but were not named as references by the applicant. “Finding out what the candidate’s true track record is in terms of developing people and giving them credit for accomplishments is essential. Narcissists will over-claim credit and are significantly less likely to help other people develop as leaders,” says Chatman.

I think charisma is a more a negative than anything in leaders (political, business, religious). Yes it can be powerful. But more often it may be a sign of personality problems--present or future. Greatness, let alone workaday competence, comes in many packages. It is a human weakness (understandable, but a weakness nevertheless) that we are so drawn to judging on quickly identified characteristics such as charisma, appearance or life-story.

(The article only mentions Trump in passing. I can't imagine why they chose his picture for the lede. 😅)

Why I Am Trying iOS After 11 Years of Android

I was an early adopter of Android. I pre-ordered the second-generation Android phone, HTC Magic, mid-2009. I have long been pro-Android, anti-iPhone/iOS. For a few years, I even taught Community Ed classes on Android and deciding if you need a smartphone. I have never purchased any Apple product of any kind for myself. So why did I just pre-order an iPhone 12? 

Cost

The most I have ever paid for an Android phone is $450. That was for my current, 3-year-old Essential PH1. The idea of paying $600 for a phone that might last 2 years or less has always been hard to swallow. When the iPhone X came out, with Apple testing the $1000 price point, I was more sure than ever that I would never own an iPhone. 

But then the next year Apple did quite an about-face. They released the unheralded, under-appreciated iPhone XR for $300 less than the prior year's flagship. And by most measures, the XR was a small but solid upgrade, rather than an "economy model". And finally Apple increased the bottom-tier memory to 64 Gb, which I think (fingers crossed) remains adequate.

Then last year's iPhone 11 really got me thinking. At $700, it was $50 less than the previous years' XR, while again being a modest upgrade. 

The clincher on price is the fact that our carrier, T-Mobile, seems to have established a very reliable pattern of offering very generous trade-ins for even 3-year-old iPhones. $300 the last couple of years. Since my goal is to keep a phone for 3 years, that means, after the initial purchase price of $800, the replacement cost is $500 every 3 years. Not dirt-cheap, but very tolerable, especially if you don't hate the phone the last 9 months.

Battery life

iPhones always had decent battery life, due to Apple's tight control and integration. But for a long time, Apple seemed very satisfied with just being above average. Every generation, instead of improving battery life, they held it constant, choosing instead to make devices ever-thinner. Totally a case of style over substance.

But the XR changed all that. The XR even had slightly better battery life than the pricier XS! I noticed my wife (not the most careful person about obsessively charging her phone) could routinely go all day without worrying about power! 

I have grown very sick of devoting mental cycles to considering the state of my phone's battery. Battery life is definitely a weak spot for the PH1, which in many other ways is a good Android phone. The whole time I've owned it, I keep it on battery saver. Mostly that works okay, but it messes with navigation and things like my Tile bluetooth tracker. Last year's follow-up with the iPhone 11 appears to have cemented Apple as a battery-life standout (though I fear the iPhone 12 may be a small regression, probably blame 5G).

iOS Parity

Areas where Android had a clear lead have finally disappeared or diminished. Such as ability to select default apps for things like browsing, mail, navigation. Also multi-tasking and inter-app communication. 

Screen size and ratio

I was all-in from Day 1 that larger screen sizes are a big win. I had a Samsung Vibrant, which had one of the largest screens at the time (all of 4"). But Apple stubbornly, smugly stuck to small screens, claiming that it was better, because your thumb could cover most of the screen area. Totally a BS post-hoc justification, of which I was (and still am) contemptuous.

Even when iPhone went big, with the iPhone 7 Plus, it still had comically huge bezels, for a very poor screen:body ratio. That was another thing I was into from early days--minimum bezels, most screen for the size. A big part of the reason I got the PH1.

But finally, with the iPhone X, Apple started putting the pieces together. I say started, because for one thing, the iPhone X was too long and thin. And as mentioned before, at $1000, too expensive. But also as mentioned, one year later, they totally fixed those problems with the XR.

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So that takes care of the negatives that till now had kept me very uninterested in the iPhone option. Now on to the positives. 

Hardware

Even at my most anti-iPhone, I envied the hardware. The smooth, fast, performance from full vertical integration. Innovations that almost always "just worked", and usually led the way for the industry (Touch ID, Face ID). Consistently phenomenal cameras and screens. Great waterproofing.

This is in contrast to the highest-end Android OEM, Samsung--king of the gimmicks. Samsung is a great manufacturer, and they have produced some great phones, but they are inconsistent and unpredictable. Many Samsung-originated innovations are features in search of a need.

Tired of one-off problems

The fragmentation of the Android world is a drag. Especially if you are on anything but the Samsung flagship, any problem you have is hard to pin down. Is it your unique phone or configuration? Not that the iOS world is perfect, but if you have a problem, you also likely have lots of company. Meaning that a fix is more likely to be forthcoming, and if not full-on fix, a much better chance of finding a reasonable work-around.

Updates

Apple has long shone in this department, and Android has long lagged. The Google phones have done reasonably well, Samsung is I think getting better, but the lesser OEMs often don't even ship with the latest version, so the one upgrade you get is just to go to the latest version--12 months late.

Apple's one little black mark was that older phones that were nominally supported were sometimes crippled by the upgrade, because they simply lacked the hardware to run the newest iOS well. My impression is that recent iPhones are so damn fast that this is no longer an issue. That is certainly the sentiment in the iPhone 12 reviews--the performance improvement is not noticeable today, but is nice insurance against future upgrades.

Curiosity

I've been all-Android so long, I am curious to see how the other half lives. My impression is the apps are better. Possibly more expensive, but better. 

Overcast (podcast App)

On the subject of apps, as a heavy podcast user, having a great podcast app is important to me. I have tried a few on Android, and they are all fine, but none seem great. iOS has a podcast app, Overcast, that gets rave reviews. I listen to the developer's podcast, and have recommended it to my iPhone-toting friends and family. But I have never actually used it, because it is iOS-only. So I am looking forward to trying Overcast, and saving time with its Smartspeed feature that eliminates silences.

Repairability

The few times I have looked into repairing Android phones, it has been cost-prohibitive. Like a car that has light damage but is nevertheless "totaled". In the case of the PH1, that applies even to replacing the battery. By contrast, iPhones have a pretty good record for cost of basic repairs, such as screen or battery replacement.

Fareed Zakaria Even Likes the Same Books I Do!

I've loved Fareed Zakaria for a few decades, going back to the days of his Newsweek column. So I was delighted to see he was a guest of another podcaster I also really like, Ezra Klein. The episode did not disappoint!

Highlights for me:

[America has] A degree of local variation that you see almost nowhere else.

Definitely is a pet topic. I think most of the arbitrary variation between states is unnecessary and pointless. It's a fine line, I know. "Laboratories of democracy".  Or these days, a few states are the bulwarks of democracy. But maybe if we didn't have so much crazy local variation, we wouldn't be in the dis-united position we are in.

America compared to what? America as least bad hegemon.

Zakaria isn't one to whitewash America's history or foreign policy. But he does make the vital observation that the behavior of most great powers, let alone superpowers, isn't good. That should never be an excuse, but it is a reason for a modicum of American pride and optimism.

The Adventures of Kavalier and Klay

This was the bonus. Klein always asks guests to recommend 3 books. The rules of recommendation are totally open, but typically guests recommend non-fiction books related to the topics of conversation. Zakaria's third pick was one of my favorite books of all time, Michael Chabon's The Adventures of Kavalier and Klay. (Klein also seemed to have read and enjoyed it.)

Simplism, Denialism, Populism

 I can add "simplism" to denialism and populism as horridly destructive -isms that are currently very prevalent. Though I suspect the Venn diagrams for simplism and populism are 95% overlapping. Unsurprising to see sloganeering called out as a hallmark.

Economizing on your Amazon Audible Account

PSA on some things to make Audible more cost-effective. I had an account for maybe 6 months, and decided it was too expensive. I initiated an online cancellation, and the offered me a few different deals. One of them was $99 up-front for a year's worth of credits. Considering that at the normal $16/month price, a year costs $192, that is about a 50% discount. That's a deal-maker, so I took it ($8.20/book).

But did you know that you can gift Audiobooks? So if you only need a few books a year, several people could split the cost of one account.

We will see if this sweet deal gets extended when my year is up!

Tweet from a Canadian: I've voted in every Canadian election since I was 18 and I've never registered for shit. "Voter registration" is voter suppression. Just to clarify for the pedants, yes I'm technically registered but the gov does it automatically. I've moved 6 times in the last 10 years and never had to lift a finger to register myself.

I love this tweet for a couple of reasons, beyond the fact that it illustrates a sensible that I agree with. It illustrates a couple of my favorite beliefs. One, a different kind of American nationalism. A kind that values American citizenship, and what is best for America, far, far above state politics and policies. The privileges of American citizenship should follow seamlessly, wherever one relocates in the country.

Second, the value of empirical inquiry into how it is done in other places. The US, like any government, would be wise to cast a broad net of intellectual inquiry, look for what works elsewhere, and consider how it might be applied here. Completing your income taxes is another good example. Or, uh, firearms regulation.

Ireland Lacrosse Bows Out Of 2022 World Games So Iroquois Nationals Can Play

Great story of extraordinary sportsmanship. 

Face masks Phase II

KN95 Notes

CDC testing results (scroll down, expand + sign to see list).

CDC updated results

Here are some articles on fakes (1,2,3). They are on Medium, so I can't be 100% certain of the author's bona fides.

I have been using Purism for 5 weeks. They were originally on the approved list, as of 09/22/20 on the "no longer authorized" list. But they did very well in the original testing, so I think the no longer authorized means that they didn't quite meet the highest standards, but they are still much better than any random paper or cloth mask. They go in and out of stock. When available, I have seen them 20 for $40. They passed the "blow out a flame" test and the "holds water" test. They are durable, and have held up very well to repeated wearings. The ear loops are definitely on the tight side (I have a really big head), but that is more a feature than a bug, b/c they have to be tight to be effective.

Do not be put off by the price. $2 per may be very inflated compared to pre-Covid prices, but well worth it. Honestly, given how quickly paper masks deteriorate, these may be cheaper in the long run. I have one that I keep in my car. I have probably donned and doffed it 50 times, and it is still in great shape. 

I also bought some Holodeal, when Purism were out (just to have more--I have been handing them out to family). They seem equally good, but I have less wearing experience, and couldn't find the brand rated. Price about the same.

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In the USA, we have more or less gotten to the point where most evidence-oriented individuals understand that face masks help stop the spread of Covid 19.

But not all face masks are equal in effectiveness. It certainly *does* seem the case that even make-do face masks have significantly over-performed. But we are past the extreme shortages of PPE, and KN95 masks--arguably as good as N95, so long as they are genuine--are available.

I have been using KN95s for over a month. They seem very good. I subjected my batch to a few of the tests to detect counterfeits, they passed. They are maybe 20% harder to breathe through. The an offsetting benefit, at least for me, is that they form a peak in front of the nose. Whereas the flat masks seal against my nose when I inhale.

A well-fitted N95/KN95 is theoretically a total Coronavirus barrier, whereas make-do masks inhibit viral load, but don't reduce it to zero, so they buy time, but cannot absolutely prevent transmission.

My point is--let's not rest on laurels. Let's up mask-wearing to the super-effective masks.

(A bonus--although they are more expensive, they are much higher quality, so last through many, many wearings. Unlike the cheap ones, which tend to break a strap the first time I fiddle with them!)

Covid-19 Risk Is Respiratory

It is shockingly hard to get people to absorb basic public health facts related to Covid-19.  Most fundamentally, that is is 95-100% RESPIRATORY. So handwashing and face shields can't hurt, of course, but the risk is that they are a distraction that creates a false sense of security(1). Zero surprise that this Swiss case investigation found face shields didn't confer much protection, while masks did. 

Another point that has been massively and unnecessarily confusing is the idea that "the (sole/main) reason to wear masks is not that they protect the wearer, but that doing so is a pro-social act to protect others". While the protect others part is certainly true, I am baffled as to the belief they don't also protect the wearer(2). Good to see this article take on that point.  

(1) The false sense of security factor was, I believe, one of the reasons masks were originally downplayed by some public health experts. Best of intentions, probably, but clearly a devastating mistake, in hindsight. 

(2) It may come from the established practice in some countries, mostly east Asian I think, of wearing masks when one is sick, yes, in order to protect others.

Hoarding by Marquee Art Museums

In this recent episode of his terrific podcast, Revisionist History, Malcolm Gladwell starts to explore a topic that has always bothered me: the fact that marquee museums typically have vast storerooms of artifacts that are seldom, if ever, displayed. I don't want them to be sold to private collectors, but wouldn't everyone be so much better off if they were viewable in second and third-tier museums?

(I say "starts to explore", because that is the intro to the episode, but then it segues into an examination of hoarding behavior, the NY Met merely serving as an attention-grabbing example.)

Orange Wine?!

Pretty interesting article on "orange wine". When I saw the headline I first thought it referred to a fruit wine. I am down on fruit "wine" of course. "Down on" as in fruit wine:real wine::margarine:butter. I.e., I would never buy or consume it, at any price, if I had the alternative of the real thing!

But orange seemed such an improbable fruit for fruit "wine", that I took a second look, and realized it was more like "Rose++".

Frequent Password Reset Requirements

For a while, conventional wisdom was that making users change passwords frequently was an anti-pattern—encourages users to choose simple passwords. But with the risk of data being moved offline and brute-forced, has that changed? If the password is used on multiple sites, all it takes is for one careless site to have their encrypted passwords stolen, for offline cracking.

Of course, unique, complex, randomly-generated passwords from password managers such as 1Password are better still.

I went for PT recently and it was pretty helpful. Each week for 4 weeks they gave me additional exercise. They sent me home with printed diagrams like this (random link, not my actual exercises). Exercises seemed to help. What I wish they had also given me were links to each of the recommended exercises. Ideally, all compiled into a personal master URI for me, for my future reference if needed.

Ethical e-Commerce UI Never Tries to Trick the Consumer

I loathe apps and companies that use UI to trick me. Examples:

When transferring my Venmo balance to my bank, the app always presents the expedited option that carries a 1% fee. This is a terrible deal, and unless you absolutely have to have the money quickly, nobody should use it. But Venmo presents it first, in a way that makes it look like it is the standard. More than once I have almost chosen it by accident.

What would an ethical approach be? Bare minimum, make the no-fee and fee approaches at least equal in the UI, so the user isn't tricked into choosing the one that is almost surely a bad deal. Better yet, create a setting where the user can set the no-fee option as their default, so they don't have the UI friction of making a choice between a good deal and a terrible deal.

LinkedIn is a huge offender. They do this horrible bait-and-switch thing with invitations. After executing on their periodic prompt for connect with people you might know (annoying, but to be expected with any form of social media), almost instantaneously, the UI automatically populates the screen with all the contacts that you just deliberately un-checked! It happened so fast, it was hard to notice. In fact, if you weren't paying close attention, you might think the first SEND INVITATIONS did not work, so you would re-click. They have been doing this for over a decade.

One of the pleasures of doing business with Amazon is that I find it never nudges me in a direction contrary to my best interests. Even when they offer shipping options that would be cheaper to them than honoring my Prime membership, they default correctly, to Prime, and merely give me the option to select the alternative shipping methods.

Full Size Range Hood Should Be Construction Code

The benefits of having a good kitchen exhaust fan is under-rated. Especially desirable when you burn something so much it smokes, or when cooking something extra pungent or messy. But day-in, day-out, they are good to use when doing any amount of stovetop work that involves oil. Get the aerosolized oil droplets out of your house, instead of letting them disperse and much things up.

The worse situation, of course, is to have an un-ducted fan. That does basically nothing but make noise for the placebo effect. But I think a microwave is a poor substitute for a full-size range hood. Unfortunately, it seems like over-the-stove microwaves have replaced range hoods in most kitchens these days. Ours included. I think replacing the microwave with a good hood would be pricey, and then also we have a space-inefficient kitchen layout, so counter space is somewhat limited, and so no good home for a countertop microwave.

If we ever move again...

My Mint Transaction Review Process

I've been using Mint.com for a few years now. I imagine I am a typical, lightweight user--I don't try to categorize things, I just use it to pull all my transactions into one journal, that I can review weekly (especially important for couples who share accounts).

For a while, I reviewed them directly in Mint, and that works okay, but its interface is not exactly snappy. I eventually hit on the idea of exporting them all to Excel (effortless, built-in, just scroll to the bottom of the transactions window for the "Export All" option). That has worked much better.

In Excel, I have all the responsiveness, power and speed of that very familiar application. Search, filter, it's all there. I review transactions, flag things that my wife needs to review, or that I may need to follow up on (e.g., Reimbursable), make an occasional note. Takes maybe 20 minutes per week, total.

There are little glitches, that mostly don't bother me, but would get in the way if you were trying to do true accounting. The main thing is that some transactions appear to be repeated, but aren't. I think this must have something to do with the timing of the credit card clearing process. 

Retirees Should Still Have a Heavy Stock Allocation

I've seen a few articles like this recently: Retiring Into a Shaky Market? Think Long Term Anyway

I am always 100% equities with retirement savings, and always envisioned to continue to be heavily allocated in stocks through retirement.

The one thing that troubles me a little is really bad timing. Market goes down 40% the very year you retire. So this article makes two points that seem like good tweaks.

I like the buffer asset idea. Carve out a relatively small amount of your portfolio in cash. Then as the advisor says:

A really simple rule that I found works quite well and does just as well as more complicated rules, is that you just look at your portfolio balance on the date you retired. Whenever the current balance is less than that number, draw from the buffer asset. Otherwise, you withdraw from your portfolio. This is simple and works well.

I wish they would have given some guidance about how big the buffer should be. I'm going to say, enough to fund 2 leaner-than-ideal years.

I also like this idea:

Some retirement experts have found that an even more conservative mixture at retirement may be ideal. What they suggest next is counterintuitive, but underscores the long game that is the stock market: Instead of maintaining that lower allocation to stocks, they suggest you gradually increase it as you age.

So one thing that could imply is, starting to convert your buffer steadily to equities after, say, 5 years.

Coronavirus: Help Flatten the Curve by Deliberate Early Exposure?

The importance of "flattening the curve" of Covid19 seems to be sinking in, with "social distancing" being the single most important means. Nothing to argue with there. But I have an idea for another, complementary public health measure: what about selective, deliberate early exposure? (NOTE: This assumes that once you get it, you are immune for a while--I think that is a solid assumption.)

Why not expose voluntary cohorts of people to the disease, much sooner rather than later? And then put them in quarantine together (in a motel or whatever).

From a societal/public health standpoint, this would help flatten the curve. But why would people volunteer? I think there are a number of benefits (beyond knowing you are making a contribution to the greater good):

• Early exposure guarantees sufficient resources for your treatment. Versus getting it at peak, and maybe the hospital is full, or out of respirators.
• Choosing your time and place of quarantine ensures you aren't stuck on a cruise ship for weeks.
• Similarly, since the entire cohort would be infected together, the duration of the quarantine would be a predictable 2 weeks. Versus the cruise ship scenario, where every time a new case pops up, it would reset the clock.
• By getting it over with, you no longer have to endure weeks or months of social distancing--you are free to go about your business.
• You would have company in quarantine--the rest of your cohort.
• And of course you would know you are making a major, pro-social contribution by volunteering to be exposed. Ideally, maybe this could earn credits for those near and dear to you who are at high risk--should rationing be required.

I think it would be super-beneficial to do this with healthcare workers. Because that famous curve-flattening graphic? The one that shows the Healthcare system capacity as a fixed, steady-state horizontal line? Well guess what? If healthcare workers are infected, that line plunges downwards.

There would also be a big scientific/clinical dividend. Early data on the disease progression. If done really carefully, it might be possible, to some degree, to group the cohorts in statistically useful ways (vs random) to provide even better data.

Compromise for Blog-Length Tweets

Twitter is famously minimalist for tweet length. For over a decade, they rigidly stuck to 128 characters. I found that to be way too short, most tweets required severe editing to fit. Longer tweets used the ugly hack of screenshotting the text. Among the many drawbacks to this approach is that it is usually impossible to read on a phone. I almost never bother.

The expansion to 256 characters significantly eased the pain . But there are still a lot of screenshots out there. Also, I detest reading long tweet chains. I have an idea for a compromise:

• The Twitter client should allow you to create an arbitrarily long post (>>256 characters).
• The Tweet body should consist of the first 128-256 characters.
• The remainder of the tweet content will be automagically turned into a post (sort of like Tumblr).
• The tweet will end with a more link that provides the rest of the post.
• The author can either explicitly specify the break point, otherwise it will be algorithm-based (e.g., nearest complete sentence to 256 characters).

Technically it seems very reasonable. Not sure from a business model point of view. I don't see anything obviously bad about it. In pursuit of ad-based monetization, the Twitter client could do annoying things like throw an ad up when you click to more link. It might have a pretty good payoff--anyone clicking the more link is obviously a motivated reader.

Free Shipping Social Costs Analysis

I've come across quite a few articles that point out downsides of "free shipping", here is a recent one. One downside is environmental impact--free shipping leads to less efficient ordering (smaller quantities, not bothering to bundle shipments). Free expedited shipping makes this even worse.

Another downside is that it contributes to winner-take-all economics. Amazon can do free shipping much more efficiently than a small eTailer.

IMO, part of the reason "free shipping" has become such a draw lies in the alternative, especially as practiced in the earlier days of eCommerce. Problem #1 is eTailers using shipping as a profit center. So advertising low prices, but then doubling the real shipping cost (in the pre-internet days, this was often referred to as "shipping & handling").

Problem #2 is just the mental model of not knowing how much shipping will cost. It is very tedious and frustrating eCommerce experience to select and configure a few items, perhaps go through a few screens of checkout, only to have the website calculate the shipping at the last minute and see that it will be 40% of your purchase price, causing you to abandon.

So the first problem is a business-model problem. No sympathy on that. Give me straightforward pricing every time, spare me loss-leaders, coupons and cross-subsidies.

The second problem is where Amazon probably has a really huge advantage. The easy solution to post net prices that include shipping, and also factor these into search (show net cost, shipping included). This is what Amazon typically does.

Amazon makes it look effortless, but I imagine there are major complications. First, you have to know the destination address, so it helps if the shopper is already logged in--advantage Amazon. Second are the algorithms. E.g., how much you get charged for shipping would typically include how many other items you purchase. I imagine Amazon uses algorithms to come up with a single, flat number. Sometimes too high (multiple items same shipment), sometimes too low (multiple single items). But it all evens out. That would be very challenging for any small eTalier to implement.

Hopefully over time, enabling platforms, such as Shopify, will emerge to help equalize some of these things. But it may be a very long journey, particularly for specialty eTailers. I.e., the pattern for one specialized product may be very different than another specialized product or a more general-purpose eTailer. It could take a very long time for Shopify, et. al., to get enough data to make correlations.

24-Second-Rule-Like Feature for Words with Friends

The Scrabble-like games, when played by experienced, highly competitive players, often devolve into trench warfare at the end of the game. Neither player wants to play anything besides the most trivial 1-2 letter words, for fear of opening up the board to a lethal end-strike.

While that style of play has its charms, it can become a bit dull. I have an idea to fix it. If you play a word that is less than 50% of the maximum points you could earn, you pay a 1/3 penalty on the difference. So for instance, if you could play EXIST for 48 points, but you choose to play only EX for 18 points, then you get a 10-point penalty.

Silicon Valley Overrated and Certainly Overpriced

Finally!

Ideas to Tweak the Power of Executive Clemency

The governor of Kentucky recently granted some questionable scandalous pardons. I haven't thought or studied much on the general subject of executive clemency. But it seems like the spirit of that  power could be upheld while introducing some moderate checks-and-balances, to avoid misuse of power and outright corruption.

The most basic idea is that some modest, minority support in the legislature would be required to sustain the pardon, where a pardon is challenged. If there is no challenge to a pardon, it is effected.

So imagine for instance that a legislator challenges the pardon for child rapist Micah Schoettle. That would be put to a vote, and at least 20% of Kentucky representatives would have to affirm the pardon.

So the barrier of affirmation is still very low, low enough that party-line votes wouldn't be sufficient to overturn the executive clemency decision. But high enough that a meaningful number of legislators would have to be willing to go on record as sustaining a given pardon. (There is no science behind my opening bid of 20%, it just seems like a reasonable number to accomplish those objectives).

I Hate Powerpoint

I'm not a big fan of Powerpoint. Obviously it has its place, which is visual speaker aids for presentations, and perhaps highly visual topics (although it is a terrible drawing tool, IMO). But in corporate life, at least where I work, a "deck" has become a substitute for a written memo.

I think this is bad and wrong for multiple reasons. Nobody expects to read a Powerpoint, so text within a deck must, by convention, be much abbreviated. As a writing tool, Powerpoint is inferior and inconvenient. Of course, that also contributes to excess brevity and glossing over the details.

Why do people use Powerpoint this way, and what can be done about it? I believe one reason Powerpoint is attractive is that fixed pages, vs scrolling content, serve to anchor the reader. Given that even a deep, multi-page corporate memo is not going to be a novel, I think that is fine. But there is an easy solution: create page breaks. I think if Word did more to encourage a page-oriented writing style, including Powerpoint-style display only one page at a time, it would help.

Then again, there are other reasons that will be difficult to overcome. One is that many corporate authors probably view Powerpoint's brevity as a benefit. Either because they aren't good at real writing, or because they want to leverage its built-in potential for brevity to elide difficult or inconvenient details. Then of course there is sheer habit--if management expects analyses to be delivered via Powerpoint, it is hard to buck the trend. Especially if doing so subjects the recipient to the need for deep reading.

I take consolation in the fact that one of the very biggest, most successful and innovative organizations in the world bans it.

Idea to Keep Drawers from Getting Jammed by Contents

I hate it when drawers get jammed and won't open because some long object, such as a knife, gets tipped up and jams up against the facia as you try to pull the drawer open. It seems like this is a solvable problem, for a society that has the will to do so. Below is my quick idea for how:



A tapered piece of springy plastic is attached to the top of the drawer opening. to push down tipping up utensils, and when not fully successful in pushing them down, to ease them past the opening.

"State Fair Pricing"--Legit or BS?

The state fair is a very big deal in Minnesota, and one of its many facets is certain types of business having an on-site presence and heavily promoting a "State Fair Price". Does anyone thing this is truly a legit best-anytime discount? Or just another run-of-the-mill discount, leveraging the once-a-year event to create a false sense of urgency?

I strongly believe the latter. My consumer philosophy, for big-ticket, highly negotiable purchases where the consumer is offered discounts as part of the sales pitch, without even asking--whatever price you are being offered as "today only" can be got tomorrow, or next week, too. The harder the sales person pushes, the more true this is.

Airbnb Can Be Great, Except When It's Awful

This article is a good heads-up on possible Airbnb scams by hosts. I think the moral of the story is: don't accept any swap, especially last minute, without viewing the substitute premises first.

I had my own bad Airbnb experience. I reserved an Airbnb in London in summer peak season. The host canceled at the last minute. No way could I find comparable lodgings for my party of 5 for any reasonable price. I have no idea why they canceled, though I suspect it may have been because they realized they could charge more.

So although I don't think it was a scam in my case, I feel like the same, simple remedy would work for both of our cases. Namely, the cancellation policies should be reciprocal. If I had canceled with 48 hours notice, I would have received no refund. Why shouldn't the same rules apply to the host???

The UC Davis Experience for Cheese?

The team’s findings could lead to the development of new kinds of cheese in the United States. Dr. Wolfe has been approached by American cheesemakers who want to know if his team could collect wild blue fungi in their local cheese caves and transform them into edible molds, creating new regional varieties of cheese.

Just as UC Davis ushered in the scientific era for viticulture and oenology, maybe this will be the beginning of the same for cheese.

The Hard Part of Things

Losing weight is not the hard part, keeping it off is.
Getting to the top of Everest is not the hard part, getting down alive is.
Encryption is not hard, key management is.

Dockless e-Bikes Are A Wonderful Convergence of Technologies

I had the chance to use dockless e-Bikes during a visit to Seattle in June. They fully lived up to expectations. They were plentiful, easy to use, and powerful. 20 mph uphill with modest effort is a lovely way to get around. Especially if the city is bike-friendly, which Seattle generally is.

The whole dockless e-Bike experience is a wonderful convergence of technologies. Foremost, of course, the e-Bike itself. Then there is the Smartphone app to locate and effortlessly rent them (although they were so thick in central Seattle, you could often just stroll and find them within 2 minutes).

A challenge in bike-commuting in an unfamiliar city is finding a good, bike-friendly route. Google Maps makes short work of that--it quickly got me into a bike lane, and kept me on bike-friendly streets for the duration of my trip.

The only problem with relying on Google Maps whilst biking is being able to hear. Which is where the last piece of technology comes in. Nice wireless earbuds are easy to carry at all times, and a single bud in the right ear allows you to hear navigation instructions well, while keeping the left ear free to hear the sounds of the street.

Micro USB Will Be The New Floppy Drive

I.e., the old hardware standard that never disappears, only slowly fades away.

Podcast Listening Tips

Short Version

• Use Overcast if you have iPhone.
• Speed up the playback. You both get through more content, and faster is actually better for holding your attention.
• Try wireless earbuds--Airpods are most well-known, there are good budget alternatives. One of many benefits is ease of single-ear listening, which for spoken audio, is usually what you want.
• Pro tip: if you use a Read Later app, such as Pocket, you can use the built in TTS (synthesized voice reads out loud) in all the same situations you listen to podcasts.

Longer Version

A bit of advice for those who haven't yet gotten into podcasts. There are so many. Any specialized subject, you will find a podcast on it. Podcasts especially have a "long tail' effect:

• There are well-known, highly produced podcasts, often some kind of brand extension from existing media source (NPR, the extensive Ira Glass storyteller tree, Freakonomics and Malcolm Gladwell).
• There are middle-market podcasts beg enough to attract sponsors, but still pretty niche.
• Then there are many small Indie podcasts that are homebrew affairs, probably without sponsorships. Something for everyone.

There are many good podcast apps, but if you are on iOS, don't settle for the built-in Apple app, download the Overcast podcast app. It is definitely the best one for iOS. For Android, Podcast Addict and Podcast Republic are a couple of good ones that I am familiar with.

Start listening at 1.2X speed. You will get used to that quickly, and can keep increasing the speed. I listen at 1.5X.

Bonus tip: consider getting earbuds. Like the Apple Airpods, or Wirectutter’s budget choice for a mere $40 (I got them for my wife, they seem good).

The best ways to find podcasts are:

• Referrals from friends.
• Search the internet for topics of interest.
• One podcast leads to another.

Don't rely on iTunes recommended list, and don't try to do general searching from the podcast app--only do that to actually add a specific podcast you have identified from a different source.

Washing dishes, cutting the lawn, doing laundry and of course, driving, will never be boring again!! I get I listen to 2+ hours per day on average (more on weekends).

Pro tip: if you use a Read Later app, such as Pocket, you can use the built in TTS (synthesized voice reads out loud) in all the same situations you listen to podcasts. They synthesized voice is obviously not as good as a real narrator/speaker/reader, but it is surprisingly tolerable.

Screens hots not allowed should not be a feature

The Android Mint app does not allow me to take screenshots. I do not think any app should have the ultimate authority to tell me what I can do with my device. I think I understand the logic, which is to protect the user (or maybe a rogue app) from screenshotting sensitive info. So maybe a consent dialog would be appropriate. But at the end of the day, if I want a screenshot of whatever my device is displaying, that should be my decision.

Where'd You Go, Bernadette - Movie Comments (MILD SPOILERS)

NOTE: Comments below are about the movie. I know there is also a novel. I am very curious to learn to what degree the novel does or does not suffer from these plot problems.

The end ruined it. Wild improbability piled upon wild improbability. The overall plot and theme could have been achieved without such insipid false drama.

Movies get 1-2 suspensions of disbelief. #1 was that she fell for the personal assistant service scam. That was fine--a small stretch, but plausible, especially for an "out there" person like her, and it was a brilliant plot device that plays into topical concerns about privacy and online scams. Suspension #2  was the idea that she could stage a comeback and design the next-gen South Pole station. That's a huge stretch--comeback alone would be big, but designing a polar station when she has no bona fides is really out there. That's okay--that is the one huge thing that makes it a compelling story and entertaining movie. But everything else should be plausible, in service of the bets already placed on incredible things.

For instance, if her family had tried to meet up with her in Antarctica but failed, I think it would have achieved the same ultimate emotional and plot effect. It would have shown they cared about her and literally would have gone to the ends of the earth to help her. Likewise the attempt to stow away and get to the pole. Much more reasonable if she had tried (that's wild enough) and failed, but in failing, attracted just enough attention for her bid to be considered for the  architectural "commission" to be taken seriously.

Strengths

• Cate Blanchette's performance is great.
• The Micro$oft employee husband was really well-calibrated, very human and not at all a tech/geek caricature.

Other Complaints

• There is NO WAY that a mother-daughter relationship so enmeshed would: A) be a strong, healthy relationship; B) result in such a likeable, self-aware 15-year old.
• The idea that Bernadette could, on the basis of one abortive family intervention, very quickly chart a clear path to fixing herself. It would have been much better if they worked in some mental health counseling between the breakdown and recovery.

Criticisms of Le Carre's "The Night Manager"

I love John le Carre, and enjoyed The Night Manager. However, I did not love it as much as almost all his prior books, because it seemed so implausible. WAYYYYY to many low-percentage things are banked on; my quick inventory:

• The fake kidnapping won't result in an innocent being killed.
• A slimebag like Thomas taking so much risk to save a random child is a big stretch.
• Roper will take the bait on Apostoll's bad-mouthing of Corkoran, and choose to replace him with Thomas.
• The crucial info they got was because Thomas went rogue (snooped in Roper's study, when his handlers expressly told him not to). What was likelihood they would have obtained such compelling intel, had Thomas not taken that risk?
• The ensuing scene with Jed, where he bets everything on her goodwill, is a huge stretch.
• That whole priest signing the photo that got him the passport was totally unforseeable? Was that just a bonus?

That is all bad enough. But one thing I really appreciated about le Carre is the "anti-James Bond" approach. Very little physical drama, and none of it involving the protagonist exhibiting physical prowess (more likely, the protagonist is knocked unconscious).

But Jonathan is quite Bond-like, a near-superhero. He is great at sailing, tennis (though that didn't figure in the story), mountain climbing (figured slightly), cooking. And despite only being an enlisted man (I think that is right?), he cultivates the refined manners manners to make a first-rate manager at 3-star hotels. And he is a top-notch streetfighter. And a ladykiller. And able to shrug off tortute.

I still enjoyed the book, but would have enjoyed it more if it had not gone all Bond.

Uber for Parking Spots

I believe there are a lot of private parking spots in cities that are grossly under-utilized. Offices and stores that are closed evenings, when big events are happening. Churches that don't have much going on weekdays. General excess capacity. Seems like it crying out for an Uber of Parking Spaces.

An obvious challenge would be policing usage. How can the private version of a "meter maid" quickly visually ascertain that a given car has paid for their spot? I think the key is for all spaces to be numbered. So the enforcement game shifts from checking the car, to checking the space.

I did a quick search to see if there are startups exploring this space. I found a couple of hits on "Uber for Parking", but nothing that matched my idea. One was on-demand valet parking. Pretty much DOA, due both to its labor intensitivity, and the fact that it does not leverage "sharing economy" principles. It mostly just offered valets to park your car in the same commercial spaces already available to the general public--it did not lead to greater efficiency by utilizing wasted, empty spaces.

This effort, on the other hand, is too old-economy contractual. It seems to want you to sign over your empty space for a month at a time, as opposed to using excess capacity day-by-day.

So my working conclusion is that this could be both a significant business opportunity, and perhaps an overall social gain--less total space in the city required for parking spaces, due to more intensive utilization.

(That is the static analysis, anyway, Perhaps more available, cheaper parking would lead to more driving, which is definitely not a social gain, in my book!)

Hidden Benefit of eBooks

I like not knowing how close I am to the end of the book. With an eBook, unlike a physical book, it is easy to avoid knowing.

Dockless eBikes, Wow!

I spent half a week in Seattle in June, and had my first exposure to dockless eBikes. Total game-changer!

They were very dense, never hard to find one nearby. We had a party of three, 1.5 miles out from downtown, so we had to hunt a bit to find 3 bikes nearby, but still it was easy.

The bike itself is as-advertised. Speeds up to 20mph, going uphill at a good clip is effortless. The electronic assist was smooth and responsive, no skill required.

The whole eBike experience is a showcase for modern tech. Phone to find the bike, and unlock it. Google Maps to effortlessly find a bike-friendly route in a busy, unfamiliar city. Wireless earbud to be able to hear the navigation instructions. Worked great, Maps had me on nice bike lanes very quickly. Would have been so much harder if I had to try to plot my own bike-friendly route in the big city.

Only issue was price: not cheap. It varies a bit, but typically $2 to unlock, and $0.25 per minute. So for our party of 3, there were cases where Lyft/Uber was actually cheaper. I hope that will come down. I can see a minimum of $2-$3, but having that as a fixed cost along with a not-trivial per-minute charge is a bit stiff. Hopefully subscriptions and volume discounts.

YouTube TV Analysis

We dropped DirecTV a few months ago, in favor of YouTube TV. Monthly bill cut in half, from $90 to $45. Not looking back. This is the real deal for many would-be cord-cutters.

Cons:

• Fast Forward and Rewind much less accurate and responsive (but see PROs below).
• A few channels I don't care about (HGTV, Discover) not included.

Pros:

• Half the cost.
• Use of Google Voice for Fast Forward and Rewind--in many cases, better than the highly responsive DirecTv controls, because I can say "Fast Forward 3minutes 40seconds, and that is executed within maybe 10s".
• Cloud DVR is incredible. No limits.
• Search is so much better than the clunky DirecTv interface.
• Eliminates a lot of input switching. Mostly we are using either Netflix or YouTube TV, both via Chromecast.
• No satellites on your roof, nor cables on the outside of your house.
• Highly shareable.
• Can watch your content anywhere, anytime.
• No marketing calls.

Pro Sports Unions Should Aggressively Protect Members Financially

Sad story that superstar running back Adrian Peterson is broke. I think pro sports unions should be as aggressive as possible in protecting their members financially. Which generally means protecting them from themselves. Negotiate for something like 15% salary matching in an approved, low-expense, diversified fund that can only pay an annuity, no touching the principal until age 65.

I don't claim the 15% will be extra money to the athletes. It would effectively come as a reduction in salary. But for newly-wealthy pro athletes, it is money that will never be missed, and will hopefully save them from future penury.

Camera Apps Should Distinguish the Chaff from the Wheat

I take a lot of “utility” photos on my phone. Screenshots, grocery lists, broken stuff I need to find a solution for at the hardware store, documents I might want to refer to the next day, pictures of serial numbers too small to read.

I don’t want these polluting my photo library. I want options to frictionlessly classify a photo as “junk” (disposable) at the time it is taken, and have it go directly to a special category within Google Photos (or, ideally, any other photo app supporting the standard tagging API for Android or iOS). Much like the way Social and Promotional categories work in Gmail.

I think there are a few, complementary ways this could be implemented:

1.      A different camera icon/widget on the home screen.

2.      2 different shutter buttons on the camera app itself.

3.      Classification buttons when viewing the image, via floating clickable labels.

All could be useful, to me, #2 seems by far the most valuable.

(Whether disposable photos are auto-deleted within a few days, or saved indefinitely, should be configurable. As, for that matter, should be whether it synchs to the cloud from the device’s camera roll.)

Tweak for Basketball 3-Pointers

I am pretty happy with the modern NBA. But I am sympathetic to the idea that 3-point madness has gone just a bit too far. I can think of a simple tweak--reduce the point value to something like 2.7.

The most obvious downside I can see is that this would drastically reduce the likelihood of ties. That problem can be solved: a team has to win by a certain amount. I'm not sure what the right number would be, maybe 0.5.

How Prince Worked His Magic On The Bangles' 'Manic Monday'

I always liked the song "Manic Monday" by the Bangles, but I never understood why. On the surface, it seemed like your typical late-1980s overplayed, one-hit-wonder pop pablum. But for whatever reason, it struck me as a perfect, fun, likable pop song (maybe it helped that its subject wasn't the done-to-death trio of Love, Loss and Longing).

I hadn't thought of it in years, but then I heard this NPR story, which explained that Prince wrote it for them. Made me feel much better about liking it.

Mobile Trashcan Washing and Tire Air Pressure

This mobile trash bin washing service s a business idea I had a while ago--a purpose-designed truck to come around and clean gross trash bins. Price is just a bit too high for my tastes, but hopefully either they will gain economies of scale, and/or attract competition. I think I would be happy to pay $15 for a one-time cleaning, or maybe $30 for 2x annual subscription. Their one-time price of $44 is way too much, and their minimum is $60 for quarterly--twice my threshold.

A bonus idea I have is to combine this with other household chores that are pretty easy for a professional, but tedious for the homeowner. The best example that comes to mind is tire air pressure. The challenge there is that it would require the car to be available in the driveway on the trash day--doesn't work for most people.

I was unimpressed by my first visit to Aldi. Seems like Walmart prices, with less selection. But I have to be honest, I didn't give them a thorough vetting, because I was immediately put off by the need to produce a quarter as a deposit on a shopping cart (I remember when that experiment came in, and I am pretty sure I haven't seen it in over 20 years; I get the logic, but in this day and age, now that MSP street parking is digital, the chances of me having a quarter on me are zip.).

I ran across this interesting article. The headline grabbed my eye--"brutally efficient" is clickbait for me. I was amused that it led with the quarter thing. But as a sworn enemy of overpriced, branded consumer packaged goods, this is what makes me feel like I should give Aldi another chance:

Bargain hunters across the income ladder end up feeling like they’re outsmarting other, higher-priced supermarkets and big brands when they see their grocery receipts. Aiming to be the "smart shopping alternative,” Aldi wants to "spread the message that traditional grocers and brands simply rip off consumers,” she said.

Music to my ears. Also, maybe the long-anticipated nationwide consolidation of grocery outlets is beginning.

Commercial Push Notifications Are the New Marketing Email

I installed the new Sam's Club Scan & Go app on my phone. It is invaluable--you check yourself out. So what does Sam's treat me to? This inane push notification. Like I don't know I can buy potential Memorial Day party supplies at Sam's. They would be so much better off holding their fire for something that might actually be useful. Even if that means they never push anything at me. Or maybe something 1-2 times per year, telling me how much I have saved via their lower prices. Or an occasional, general-purpose coupon.



Because there is a beautifully simple, zero-tolerance response to these kind of dumb-assery:

Highlighting and Annotating on the Web: Business Opportunity for Medium

I read a lot, and I am a big fan of highlighting. For years I have thought good highlighting/annotating of web docs needs to be much easier. I have dabbled with various extensions. They are okay, but still kind of high friction, especially when it comes to sharing--my primary reason for highlighting. At work, I often resort to pasting into a Word doc and using Track Changes.

I would really like this to be a W3C standard and built into browsers (no I don't have all the technical details). But in the absence of that, it seems like a decent incremental opportunity for Medium. (I'm not a big fan of unnecessarily centralized blogging, but just saying...)

Jargonwatch: Double-Click

Business term, meaning to delve further into a subject. Seems to be supplanting drill-down.

Double-click is a computer input action. The odd thing is, double-clicking has been deprecated by most IT useability gurus for a decade or more. So odd that it is suddenly cropping up in this sense.

The Two-Party System, Isn't

It's amazing how ingrained is the idea of the "two-party system"in the American consciousness. But unless I am very mistaken, it is not a two-party system, it is a two-party happenstance that has ossified into an utterly dysfunctional status quo.

I think it is generally accepted that our founders--worshiped for their acumen and foresight, often with considerable reason--were not generally favorable disposed toward political parties. The system they bequeathed us was not oriented toward parties, and certainly not enshrining a sclerotic, potentially un-reformable diad of Republicans and Democrats.

So as a first step towards reform, how about if we understand and acknowledge that the two-party system is an accident, not a system.

First Smart Elevator Experience

I spent the first 12 years of my career at Otis Elevator. It wasn't the best fit, but things you do early in life inevitably leave an impression. So I am always mildly interested in elevators vertical transportation technology.

Last week I had my first encounter with "smart elevators". Something that was talked about at the time I joined the Old Elevator Company (c. 1987), but seemed very futuristic back then. In the ensuing years, I knew they had become a reality, but being a creature of the suburbs, I rarely encounter any kind of elevator; and smart elevators are only going to be relevant in a >7 floor building with a bank of 4+ 'vators.

So it was interesting and gratifying to see them in action. There are no buttons inside the car--you make your choice of destination floor while standing in the hallway. The people I was visiting said that when they get in a normal elevator, they are prone to step in and do nothing, forgetting that they need to register their floor destination from inside the cab.

Definitely major progress.